Start typing to search content
Get the app experience
121 items shared from this domain
An FT poll of 4, 000 workers in the US and UK shows adoption is heavily skewed towards the best-paid workers: more than 60 per cent use AI daily, compared with…
Professor Cowen, Built a county-level AI displacement model across all 3, 204 US counties. Top 5 most exposed counties are all in the DC metro, not the Rust Be…
From Finbar Curtin and Matthew G. Burgess, here is the paper. Here is the thread, worth a read. Important stuff, I hope to hear more about this. The whole c…
Created by Alex T. , and of course GPT as well. The post Imagegen 2. 0 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
This paper compares agentic AI systems and human economists performing the same causal inference tasks. AI systems and humans generally obtain similar median c…
Zimbabwe, often considered an economic basket-case because of its history of farm seizures and hyperinflation, is enjoying an idiosyncratic boom. High prices f…
At the advent of a more aggressive Persian Gulf policy on the part of Iran during the interwar years, the resilience of these symbols was watched like a kind o…
In 2025, the U. S. raised average tariff duties from 2. 4% to 9. 6%, bringing protectionism to its highest level in eighty years. We explore the structure of t…
The 1941 Anglo-Soviet invasion destroyed Reza Shah — but not the Pahlavi state. The two Allies — joined by the United States in December 1941 R…
From 1857: The Persians were great sticklers for ceremony, it turned out, and now that the treaty was ratified, they expected an exchange of gifts to mark the…
I know I cannot “talk most of you into Duchamp, ” but I will say this is one of the best museum shows I have seen, ever. Putting aside your view o…
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary: Kim Bowes is an archaeologist at the University of Pennsylvania whose book, Surviving R…
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics has been awarded annually since 1969. Who wins the prize is a topic of much interest and tracks the whole course of the a…
1. Progress in speaking to whales. 2. More math progress from GPT. 3. “Anthropic’s automated alignment researchers already outperform humans……
1. An observation on left-wing universities. 2. Arnold Kling on marginalism. 3. “You should be holding more babies. ” 4. Hayekian welfare states. 5…
But despite the pitiful state into which the country had descended, the major outside powers, Russian and the Ottoman Empire, did not intervene as they had in…
This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30…
This paper introduces Entangled Time — a novel economic variable representing the simultaneous production-consumption state characterizing human engageme…
But the cartel’s interests may prove just as important to security as government efforts, according to a dozen local and state officials and security experts.…
The Guardian has an interesting article on prediction markets. There are the usual worries about betting on death, as if insurance markets don’t already…
Following my post on cross-country driving, a reader asked me about this prospect but I suppose I am skeptical. First, self-driving vehicles make it too easy t…
And that is in Hungary, which does not have much of a democratic tradition. People who suggest that democracy seriously is in danger in the United States need…
1. Have recessions disappeared? 2. Humans are losing the fight against flying fish (WSJ). 3. Bruce Lee in action. 4. Helium is hard to replace. 5. Does using A…
We examine the economic impact of non-consumable visual cues through home staging on high-stakes housing transactions. Using hand-collected listing photos for…
renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it s…
I think one important point you missed is that South Africa’s recent (and ancient) history has forced the population to work quite aggressively through racial…
I have driven cross-country four times, at least if you count a 3/4 trip as valid. I also have driving experience in virtually all states, including Hawaii an…
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him, Wikipedia here. I very much enjoyed his new book on the Rolling Stones, plus he has many older books of note, inc…
From young professionals to the working poor, many Cape Town residents complain that out-of-control housing prices have forced them to live far from the jobs,…
Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? Catastrophic even. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to creat…
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has grown 66% this century, fueled in part by a record-breaking number of convert baptisms in 2025. The church…
Two new papers/initiatives indicate severe risks from AI, interestingly in opposite directions. The first is that the most advanced frontier models are now cap…
We study the effects of large-scale humanitarian aid using novel data from the American Relief Administration’s (ARA) intervention during the 1921-1922 f…
1. Claims about the role of China, and its economics. And there is a lot of remaining uncertainty, but here is one of the saner Iran war takes. The post Two a…
An excellent and highly original movie, I cannot say much without infringing upon the surprise of the basic premise. Exquisitely choreographed in its timing,…
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of…
We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shoc…
Two recent joint-papers Did California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? by Clemens, Edwards and Meer and The Effects of California’s $20…
1. Josefina Aguilar Alcantara, RIP (NYT). 2. Move abroad so you can default on your student debt (NYT). 3. History of golf course bunkers (WSJ). 4. Four reason…
Rich and poor countries differ in the size distribution of business firms. This paper shows that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically gr…
From Isiah Andrews, via Emily Oster and the excellent Samir Varma. A good piece, though I think it needs to more explicitly consider the most likely case, nam…
I’ve asked a few people that question lately, and get either no answer or very exaggerated answers. Rep. Burchett recently raised the possibility of bein…
I fear that bad management is a recurring problem with those teams. So perhaps no system of incentives can fix that. I am not sure that bidding and superstar t…
1. Ben Yeoh on Measure for Measure. 2. How much is a badly damaged Gentileschi worth? 3. Sabine Hossenfelder on UAP evidence. And a bit more. 4. New record as…
1. The most important woman in Kant’s life. 2. Incentives matter? Dealing with Iranian scientists (New Yorker). 3. “In the months that followed, U…
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and Arthur cover how scarcity makes savoring possible and why knowing you…
Bryan Caplan keeps hammering this point home, it is good to see follow-up work: In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical…
EJW Volume 23, Issue 1, March 2026 Specification Searching in the Race between Education and Technology: Joseph Francis criticizes a canonical model of the Ame…
The subtitle of the piece is “Evidence From Chinese and Swedish Twins. ” Abstract: Economists have long studied how parental behavior shapes withi…
Online dating apps have transformed the dating market, yet their broader effects remain unclear. We study Tinder’s impact on college students using its i…
That does not mean it is good! From Jeffrey M. Stonecash: Congress is portrayed as compliant with President Donald J. Trump’s agenda because he is intimidatin…
He is one of the world’s leading art critics, all of his books are excellent, and he has a new and very good work coming out titled Vermeer: A Life Lost…
From The Marginal Revolution: Rise and Decline, and the Pending AI Revolution: The day before drafting this paragraph, I blogged a paper on confidence gaps bet…
I am offering a new piece of work — I do not quite call it a book — online and free. It has four chapters, is about 40, 000 words, is fully writte…
1. The argument that Elon will win the AI race. 2. Results from Malawi on the USAID changes. 3. Data on Strauss’s lectures. 4. The decline of reality TV…
Physician incomes are extraordinarily high in the United States. A new NBER paper finds that U. S. physicians earn roughly two to four times as much as their c…
When Tyler and I were writing Modern Principles of Economics, we wanted examples that were modern, specific, and grounded in the real world. That has been a bi…
Soon enough you will be able to take any published research paper and tweak it, or improve it, any way you want. Just apply a dose of AI. Using Refine, you al…
Lured by low taxes, entrepreneurs from across Latin America are plowing in money and taking up residence, with applications surging more than 60% in 2025. Slee…
The post Dwarkesh chats with Terence Tao appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
So far, however, the predictions that the mass automation of coding will leave outsourcing firms obsolete seem overblown. Their clients often hope AI will crea…
By The Diamonds. The video is not what I was expecting. The post Little Darlin’ appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
In 18 parts, Lang explores some of Smith’s central themes, including one of the book’s most famous passages, where Smith uses a wool coat worn by a very poor S…
From 2014 to 2024, Canada’s real GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity grew by just 3. 2 percent in total, an anemic 0. 4 percent per year on ave…
An AI memory startup called Memvid is offering $800 for a one-day, eight-hour shift for one candidate to “bully” AI chatbots by telling them what to do on came…
In the Danish mortgage market every mortgage is backed by a corresponding bond. Thus, if a home buyer takes out a 500k mortgage at 3% interest, a bond is issue…
The post South African safari photo by Holly Cowen appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The third possibility, that AI helps to weed out mistakes, is trickier for the discipline. This stage could become even more important if journals do start to…
1. Ideological trends in academic scholarship. 2. Prediction market for the John Bates Clark award. 3. Show Me The Model. “Give it a URL or paste some plain t…
The subtitle is The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What To Do About It. Here is from the book’s summary: Contrary to popular perception, recessions a…
We compare physician incomes using tax data from the United States, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Physicians are concentrated in the top percentiles of…
AI lowers the cost of building businesses. But it raises the bar for sustaining advantage. More companies can start. Fewer can dominate. That implies greater d…
South Africa holds the grim distinction of being the most unequal country on Earth. South Africa leads the global ranking with a Gini index of 0. 63. Statista…
Live in Cape Town long enough and you lose interest in the outside world. Visitors from more exciting cities start yawning at your dinner table, but I no longe…
1. “Absolutely astounding figures from the NY state comptroller: spending on services for the NYC street homeless population ran to $81, 705 per person l…
The most controversial of the forced removals occurred in the second half of the 1960s, with the expulsion of 65, 000 coloureds from District Six, a vibrant in…
If strong AI will lower the value of your human capital, your current wage is relatively high compared to your future wage. That is an argument for working ha…
Moral disagreement across politics revolves around the key question, “Who is a victim?” Twelve studies explain moral conflict with assumptions of vulnerability…
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. He is one of the leading historians of ancient Egypt, and he has a recent book out on Ptolemaic Egypt, namely The…
Big infrastructure projects in the developing world for things like water and electricity are under-pressure. Chinese and US funding is down and these projects…
Jannik Reigl writes: Germany’s remaining research strengths are disproportionately concentrated in fields with limited commercial value. Consider climate scien…
Reuters reports the rand ended 2025 nearly 13% stronger against the dollar, its biggest annual gain in 16 years, helped by a broadly weaker USD, an improvement…
We started by asking how moralized AI has become in public discourse. Analyzing 69, 890 news headlines from 2018 to 2024, we found that AI was moralized at lev…
One of the things I like best about South Africa is how quickly one enters another and very different intellectual world. Walk into a good used book shop, suc…
Sebastian Geoffroy: I left the film perplexed, but after some thought I have an interpretation. The film is a recognition that for most of the West, the story…
We examine the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market data and industry…
The Marek Janowski box of Bruckner symphonies I find to be the best Bruckner overall. And yes I do know many other versions, even Hermann Abendroth, though I…
Given the rapid pace of advancement of AI, how should academic journals adapt to these changes? One issue might be an excess of submissions, but what other qu…
Frank McLynn, Villa and Zapata: A History of the Mexican Revolution. The best book on its topic, and one of the best books on Mexican history flat out. Every…
The post Jazz Samba appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
1. “Under the laws, Victorians [Australia] who can work from home will have the legal right to do so two days a week. ” 2. Adam Smith against hegem…
The Army is launching a new Warrant Officer Retention Bonus Auction. This initiative introduces a market‑based approach to retaining senior technical talent wh…
1. Baby names banned in Mexico? 2. Blind hearing tests for audiophiles. 3. AI models and the Coase conjecture. 4. Stopping unwanted audio recordings. 5. Swedis…
The Vietnam draft conscripted hundreds of thousands of young Americans into an integrated military. I combine near-random draft lottery variation with administ…
When Milton Friedman pondered what would happen if a helicopter dropped $1, 000 from the sky, he likely never imagined that one day a military cargo plane woul…
April 14, register here. And what would you suggest I ask him for this Conversations with Tyler? The post With Craig Newmark, at the 92nd St. Y appeared first…
1. Singaporeans to receive free premium AI subscriptions from second half of 2026. 2. “In a secular world, equality is a last attempt to offer some digni…
The author is Sebastian Mallaby and the subtitle is Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence. A very good and enjoyable book. The post *T…
I trust private companies with strong AI more than I trust the government, regardless of which administration is in power. Yet if the federal government feels…
California cannot permit the construction of a smartphone factory, an electric car plant, or a Navy destroyer shipyard. Not won’t — can’t. The regu…
Paste a URL to share with the community
