2026 World Cup: Spain in the lead, but title race remains wide open

Ahead of major soccer tournaments, a research team led by Achim Zeileis of the University of Innsbruck and Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University calculates the chances of winning for all participating teams. For the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico, and the United States, their model identifies Spain as the slight favorite with 14.5%. Closely behind are England (12.4%), France (12.4%), and Germany (11.2%). Somewhat further back are Portugal (8.9%) and Argentina (8.2%), as well as the Netherlands (5.6%) and Brazil (4.7%). "Compared to previous tournaments, this year's title race is very tight," confirms Achim Zeileis.